Y S JAGAN MOHAN REDDY’S YATRA AND CONGRESS MUSINGS IN ANDHRA PRADESH

DID JAGAN CONTINUE MORE....

In a defiant mood , son of  late Chief minister Y S Rajashekhar Reddy , Y S Jagan Mohan Reddy is scheduled to start his Odarpu yatra ( a tour aimed at consoling the families of those who lost  their lives as they could not bear the news of the tragic demise of YSR ) in few hours of time. Quite uncharacteristic of Congress culture, YS Jagan who himself a member of Loksabha from Cuddapah publicly stated that Sonia Gandhi was not in favour of his yatra. In an open letter to people released yesterday, Jagan also revealed that Sonia Gandhi suggested him to hold a meeting with the families of the deceased at one place and extend economic help. Jagan did not like the idea. Daring a possible action by the high command, Jagan, determined to inherit the legacy of his charismatic father, is all prepared for a show down. Unless a last minute rapprochement is worked out between Jagan and Congress high command, the congressmen in the state have to face an acid test to choose between Jagan and the party.

But, no one can deny the possibility of a last minute truce as there are compulsions on both sides. The high command knows pretty well that the state government led by it enjoys only slender majority. Any small revolt in the legislature party can upset the party and the government in the state. Jaganmohan Reddy also is aware of the fact that he no longer enjoys the same support from the ministers and legislators as he did immediately after his father’s death.  Despite these mutual compulsions, the political situation is pregnant with possibilities in any direction.

The letter from Jagan is politically clear and is candid in what it wants to convey. What made Jagan to take such a drastic step of defying party high command? This is a hot topic in the political circles today. The loyalists of Jagan in private talk with this author make interesting arguments. Firstly, Jagan is not going to get the chief minister post till 2014. Nobody can assure power for Congress in 2014 also. Even if the Congress retains power, it is difficult to imagine that the internal dynamics of state congress will allow Jagan to get the coveted position. Jagan’s camp also fears that incase the state is bifurcated; the political configuration will undergo a drastic change making it much more difficult for Jagan to accomplish his dream. The choice of the timing of the defied yatra is also a clever and politically calculated decision according to the Jagan supporters. Tomorrow is the first birthday of the late leader after his tragic death. Jagan wants to engage high command with YSR sentiment. Thus, the birthday of the late leader perfectly fits into the scheme of things scripted by the Jagan camp. The Srikrishna committee is scheduled to submit its report any time before December, 2010. The schedule for by-elections in Telangana has begun. The cabinet reshuffle may take place after the by-polls. These events will alter the contours of political debate in the state. The political agenda will be completely different after Srikrishna committee report submits its report anytime before December 2010. The Telangana or united Andhra Pradesh sentiment will dominate YSR sentiment. Jagan would like to steal the show if the centre decides to divide the state. Keeping this in view, he joined the TDP members in Loksabha in support of united state.  Meanwhile, the rollback or partial withdrawal of many a welfare schemes introduced by YSR for whatever may be the reason is expected to come in handy for Jagan. He has already made this an issue. In fact, this will be the main slogan of Jagan in case he is compelled to leave the party.

But, high command seems to have a completely different view on the moves and actions of Jagan camp. Jagan’s detractors are feeding the High command with the information about Jagan and his actions perhaps both in English and Italian. The maneuvers of Jagan camp ever since he was denied the chief minister post despite the open support of overwhelming number of MLAs give enough scope for suspicion. Rosaiah government was installed in the state by the high command. Therefore, it wants to back him to the hilt. Any attempt to disturb or destabilize it is seen as defiance by the high command. Jaganmohan Reddy did nothing to prove that he abides by the choice of the high command on the leadership issue. In fact, he used every opportunity to indirectly attack Rosaiah led congress government. The high command obviously did not like the de facto opposition role played by Jaganmohan Reddy. The congress high command seems to have felt that Jagan will use the congress party to emerge as a strong leader and then raise the banner of revolt.

The congress high command is in fact not against the content of Jagan’s yatra. The problem is only with the form and the context in which it is contemplated. There is no need for a yatra to console anybody. Therefore no one takes the yatra as an individual act performed by a son in memory of his father. Jagan camp wants everybody to believe this unbelievable thesis. Not even a political novice will believe it, leave alone the high command. Jagan’s proximity with Gali Janardhan Reddy, the Karnataka minister and the owner of the controversial mining activity, did not go well with the party high command. It is clear now, not just the Jagan camp, the high command is also preparing itself for any eventuality. The Sonia – chiranjeevi meeting and the possible alliance between congress and Prajarajyam party in the coming elections to local bodies are all part of this preparation. In the absence of any charismatic leader, chiranjeevi is considered as a possible choice. The congress high command is also confident that many MLAs may not actually sail with Jagan. How far this expectation comes true will only be known in the next few days. The crocodile is powerful as long as it is in water similarly leaders are powerful as long as they are in the party fold. The party structure is a formidable infrastructure for any politician to carry out his activity. The political history tells us that many charismatic leaders could not make ahead way once they leave the party. Dr.M.Chenna Reddy, K.Brahmanada Reddy, Devaraj Urs, karunakaran, kalyan singh, Uma Bharati etc. are few examples. But, Jagan camp cites the example of Mamata Banerjee, Sharad Pawar. But, the social base of Sharad Pawar’s politics and the political context in which Mamata operates cannot be compared with the political situation in Andhra Pradesh. It should also be remembered that Jagan’s charisma is not self-made. He would only like to inherit the charisma of his late father. Precisely with this reason, his letter issues a self-certification that he not only shares the blood of his father but inherits his nature too. Despite all this, it is also true that Jagan enjoys the benefit of his father’s charisma. Jagan wants to make the hay while the sun shines. Many anxious moments have to pass before the political landscape of Andhra Pradesh provides an answer to this. Jagan took a gamble. Will it pay off or not is something to be avidly watched?